UFO Conjecture(s)

Friday, April 17, 2015

Why ET visitation is ludicrous

I've always maintained that the Earth is inconsequential in the great scheme of the universe and, thus, wouldn't be an attraction to an alien culture or civilization.

For example. here's the Earth as seen from Mars:

Here's North America in comparison to Jupiter:

Here's our solar system within the Milky Way:

And the Milky Way in context of the Universe:

The article with more:

http://www.vox.com/2015/4/17/8432733/space-maps

RR

37 Comments:

  • Have a look at THE MEASURE OF THE UNIVERSE by Isaac Asimov (1983) for some real eye-openers on the size of things in the universe, both large and small. Probably the best book ever written on this kind of thing (if you like both gigantic and exceedingly small numbers, as I do).

    Asimov invents some new words here and there to describe his 'sizes'.

    By Blogger cda, at Friday, April 17, 2015  

  • I tend to think of this in terms of the sheer number of planets in the universe as well as an equal number of what are more than likely home to fascinating forms of life.
    Based on these more than likely enormous and staggering numbers, the likelihood of some civilization finding us so fascinating they devote all their time and energy here rather than elsewhere to be a sort of egotistic form of wish fulfillment.
    The stereotype of advanced technology being an arbiter of a species being highly evolved to the point of omniscience is ridiculous. You get the sense that all species have issues.
    Another aspect is any meddling has unintended consequences that cannot be predicted. Another is the psychological and self destructive nature of our species lunacies.
    Add all this together aside from the yet to be discovered means of transport through light years that remains theoretical to the Nth degree....the odds of visitation would be like their finding a pin in a haystack...let alone finding it so fascinating to be a singular aim.

    By Blogger Bruce Duensing, at Friday, April 17, 2015  

  • Good thing we're not at the center of the Milky Way...dicey with all the gamma rays and giant black hole.

    I'll just stick with us being in the "backwaters" of the galaxy.

    I suspect that if any ET culture came here, it would have been by accident, like throwing a dart on the galactic map and saying, "Wonder what's in that area?"

    By Blogger Tim Hebert, at Friday, April 17, 2015  

  • Maybe we radiate something, or put off a cosmic scent.?

    By Blogger Bob Koford, at Friday, April 17, 2015  

  • That would be one helluva stink, Robert.

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Friday, April 17, 2015  

  • Linear perspectives of the distances are overwhelming but based on historical and mechanical perspectives. It leaves us with the interdimensional perspectives and the like that requires we push our thinking ahead.

    Moving back to the size of aliens suggested as larger by calculation, I prefer to start with the given, us. That holds true with with moving beyond stagnant linear thinking as well, as the given is our continued discovery and exploration that does not appear to be leveling out except for the unfortunate reality of budget cutting of our linear space missions.

    By Blogger Bryan Daum, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • I agree with Bryan but distance as an arbiter leaves out that lack of probability when finding a needle in a universe full of haystacks.

    By Blogger Bruce Duensing, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Rich,
    I agree that there is zero chance that we are being visited by creatures from another solar system, but we are being visited,
    most likely, by evolved, ancient mammals: Crypto-terrestrials.

    Ed

    By Blogger edward gehrman, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Interdimensional possibilities eliminate the idea of extraterrestriality, do they not?

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Whats interesting about interdimensional possibilities is our own exploration of them through particle accelerators which create enormous energy fields...As strictly as a conjecture...does this equate to these large localized fields being present in UAP ?

    By Blogger Bruce Duensing, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • You raise a point, Bruce, while I wss merely saying the distant fsctor precludes an ET presence.

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • I was extrapolating how we term "extraterrestrial" as your point is well taken.

    By Blogger Bruce Duensing, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • The earth is but a tiny grain of sand in an ocean of sand. I think everyone can agree with that. I also agree that earth is inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. Given the enormous and nearly infinite number of planets, solar systems, and other celestial bodies, there must beany other far more interesting places. I still don't rule out possible visitation by alien life forms. Although I think if it has happened it's extremely rare, if at all.

    With Roswell, my theory is that if ET did crash there, they were already dead. Their space craft just floated through space carrying their dead bodies. Until by chance crashed into the New Mexican desert.
    Not to mention strange visitations reported to be aliens could possibly be time travelers from our future, psychotic episodes by the viewer, or some kind of natural phenomenon we are yet familiar with.

    By Blogger Daniel Hurd, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • The UFO beings, if any, could be any of those things you've mentioned Daniel.

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Being "visited" by extraterrestrial beings? I absolutely agree it's ludicrous. But I also think that the mathematics of the matter alone prove that our planet (and every other planet, in every solar system) is the object of long-term deep surveillance by Von Neumann probes originating probably with several 'civilizations' or post-civilizations out there, even in the distant past. Do they particularly care about us? No. Are they sentient? Probably not. Would we necessarily know they were here? No, although certainly some of the UFO phenomenon could be explained by this. They'd be automated science platforms sucking up information, performing and repeating experiments, etc. I.e., "know all that is knowable."

    My two cents.

    By Blogger Eric Wargo, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Interesting, Eric...

    Yes, one can imagine probes, from advanced civilizations, maybe a few no longer extant.

    But the plethora of UFO sightings (reports) belie such scrutiny, unless those sending probes are obsessively insane about collecting data.

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • I'd very much like to see one of these hypothetical probes--that I agree should reasonably exist. But since decades of real-time global surveillance has failed to detect even one, there must be prohibitions to interstellar travel that make it extremely unlikely for any sort of craft.

    Or the potential makers of such craft are so few and so very far away that we'll never know them.

    There are a dozen other lesser arguments for their absence....

    By Blogger zoamchomsky, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Why it is ludicrous?

    The more importent question is: Why it is NOT ludicrous!

    Here is the answer:

    http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2014/09/17/close-star-trek-propulsion/#.VTLdWJN9RTk

    By Blogger Michael Mu, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Michael, you miss the point...

    It's not distance or speed but the insignificance of Earth that makes it an "un-goal" of space travelers.

    It's like you or me going to a hog shed in Scotland rather than taking a trip to London or Paris.

    Why would anyone visit Earth, let alone find it in all the hub-bub of the Universe?

    It doesn't make sense.

    And space travelers have to have sense, do they not?

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Rich, I think an automated science platform would almost by definition be obsessively insane about collecting data ... because why not? If you're an immortal/self-replicating/self-repairing machine with no other purpose but know all that is knowable, and practically infinite data storage/analytical capacity, then why not? Think today's "Big Data" initiatives and project forward a few hundred or thousand years. I made this argument a couple years ago: http://thenightshirt.com/?p=1452

    zoamchomsky, you're assuming they haven't been detected, but (1) the bulk of UFO sightings are of high-performance and sometimes small objects that COULD fit the bill; (2) on the other hand, they'd be well beyond our level of technical advancement and COULD be nano-scale or otherwise undetectable by us.

    By Blogger Eric Wargo, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • @RRR

    Oh...i understand! Well...i think ETs oversee the Earth and human Mankind. I think also that they try to help us...today and in the past.

    We doing the same: Doctors and Helpers travel to "primitive" people and help them.

    Why we doing that? Why we travel to Africa or Amazon and help people who are maybe totally boring for us and cant give us some quid pro quo?

    Maybe you should think about it...or maybe not! ;-)

    By Blogger Michael Mu, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Of course, Eric, your speculation is not far outside the realm of possibility.

    It seems to me, however, that a culture or civilization with a penchant for mega-data would not be so absorbed with Earth, in light of all that exudes in the Universe or, even, the multiverse.

    Earth is a backwater, obviously (to me).

    While we humans like to think we're unique, built in the image of god (and maybe we really were), that doesn't preclude the idea tat there may be other creations as unique or more so.

    Why fixate on a backwater?

    The Earth is nothing, in context, of the Universe and imagined possibilities of life elsewhere even those of the probe-senders.

    There is an insanity in the UFO visitations, an insanity that bespeaks something amiss with the UFO creators or a phenomenon without sentience, just a mindless, thoughtless, soulless thing of nature, like jellyfish or plankton.

    (And here we go, someone will argue that jellyfish and/or plankton do think, have consciousness, where all I see is instinct.)

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Michael:

    We come across human in need, because our planet is relatively small as the images I've included above indicate.

    That an alien culture found Earth, highly unlikely but possible, and thought its creation needed help and they then proceeded and still proceed to help us makes for a demented altruism that I find hard to swallow.

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • Don't get me wrong, Rich, I don't think they're absorbed in us--not at all. I totally agree with you there. But if you assume a level of technical advancement where limits on science are no longer an issue and it could be totally automated, then there's no reason not to send automated science platforms to scour the universe and do endless science on your behalf.

    Basic science is about finding out everything you can, even if it has no immediate application. But security is another motive with long-term application: It would behoove a civilization to spread its intelligence-gathering tools far and wide because you never know what tree shrew on a backwater planet might in a few million years develop spaceflight and become a potential threat to its safety and interests. So its machines would dig in for the long haul, patiently watching and also testing/experimenting, repeatedly, to gather enormous data sets for very high predictive power. Even if you, the sentient being in that civilization, don't give a shit (or even if you've long since gone extinct), your AIs programmed to look out for your interests and safety are designed to be endlessly, patiently curious.

    By Blogger Eric Wargo, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • How can one argue with your reasonable speculation?

    My difference is in the quantity of "probes" -- UFOs -- involved, over a long period of time, centered on Earth, to the detriment of other cultures, civilizations elsewhere in creation?

    It just seems to me to be an inordinate process, unless mega-data indicated that some species on Earth -- that shrew you mentioned? -- might evolve into a dangerous inter-spacial entity, full of harm to peaceful members of the galactic community.

    Taking into account all the flying saucer and UFO sightings recorded for so many years (you've read Wonders in the Sky), I see an obsession that indicates neurotic anxiety (in your scenario) or an insane obsession with a species (us) far from able to take on a truly advanced alien civilization, now or in the not-to-distant future.

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Saturday, April 18, 2015  

  • The quantity of probes is because they breed like rabbits :) (at least, when they find an interesting algae- or tree-shrew planet).

    I doubt we're more than a blip in the periodic reports to the homeworld(s).

    I also don't think this idea explains the whole UFO phenomenon--or possibly even any of it (like I said, it is simply predicted by math). I agree with you, there is something much more local, and insane, going on.

    By Blogger Eric Wargo, at Sunday, April 19, 2015  


  • What is seen may not have a direct inherent purpose in of itself and could easily be a purposeful red herring or a straw dog etc. Even that presumes there's something of pragmatic value to be gained by toying with our psychology which infers our own self image having importance as a species versus others.Does lightning streak across the sky because the Gods want to instill fear in us because we are an important object of attention? I personally suspect this a natural phenomenon whose origin is unknown. It has nothing to do with role playing.

    By Blogger Bruce Duensing, at Sunday, April 19, 2015  

  • Here is a little synchronicity:

    Last night at work, one of my co-workers (another psych nurse) asked me what my thoughts were on UFOs and ETs. Before answering, I asked that she tell me what she thought on the subject. She rationalized that she thought that the vastness of the universe and our galaxy made it unlikely...and wondered how anybody could pinpoint the earth with such precision and why would they come to begin with.

    This from a woman (I've known for 18 yrs) that uses critical thinking on a daily basis!

    I was very impressed and proud of her:)

    By Blogger Tim Hebert, at Sunday, April 19, 2015  

  • "you're assuming they haven't been detected"

    Until repeated unambiguous detection establishes visitation of any kind as fact, it's reasonable to assume the negative. There are no facts of ET visitation in the world.

    "the bulk of UFO sightings are of high-performance and sometimes small objects that COULD fit the bill"

    I'd characterize "the bulk" of "UFO" reports as imaginative misinterpretations of ambiguous lights in the sky, easily explained as astronomical and man-made objects. Much rarer reports that involve what seem to be highly advanced craft and even ET beings are very interesting, they just aren't very credible. Most of these reports have the quality of dreams, archetypal figures and relationships, deal with earthly concerns, have too much in common with folklore while featuring culturally supplied science-fiction motifs to be accepted as accurate reports of real events.

    There are some extraordinary stories, they just aren't extraordinary enough; and not one really has anything to do with the possibility of visiting spacecraft. I'd like nothing more than to see what could only be a visiting spacecraft, but I doubt very much that will ever happen. So we're left with stories. Got a good "UFO" story? (g)

    "on the other hand, they'd be well beyond our level of technical advancement and COULD be nano-scale or otherwise undetectable by us"

    They would and could be, but what's much more likely is that they'd be all sizes allowed by physics, and all it takes is one existing within the scale of detectability.

    The exception is fundamental to all considerations of explanations to the Fermi paradox: whatever explanation one imagines for why we have not been visited, all it takes is ONE exception in all the Galaxy to nullify that explanation and dissolve the paradox. The Galaxy's been here for over 13 billion of years. So where are they?

    Manufacturing "undetectable" so nonfalsifiable rationales--which is indistinguishable from not existing--for maintaining the ETH may make entertaining "coulds" for some but others would rather consider what we do know and where all the evidence leads.

    By Blogger zoamchomsky, at Sunday, April 19, 2015  

  • Right, Tim, and Rich is saying something similar. I'm reminded of Timothy Ferris's Lobster Dinner experiment. Tim gets all ready for his elegant lobster dinner, waits for hours but the lobster never shows up!

    "Lobsters have their own agenda. They don't want to come to my house."

    That was 1999 (seems like it too) and not much or even nothing has changed. I liked Ferris's program but remember not thinking much of his non-explanation of the Fermi paradox. It may seem clever but it ignores the exception to all explanations.

    It only takes the existence of ONE starfaring civilization in over 13 billion years being contrary to all the prohibitions we can imagine to suddenly show up and say "Howdy!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TK0vmOCHiDs

    I can't help but think after much thought on this subject that there is some fundamental physical prohibition of which we are unaware. And that discovery will explain definitively why they will never arrive.

    By Blogger zoamchomsky, at Sunday, April 19, 2015  

  • "The Great Filter." Which side are THEY on? And maybe more importantly, which side are WE on?

    By Blogger Ron, at Sunday, April 19, 2015  

  • Tim Herbert said:

    Last night at work, one of my co-workers (another psych nurse) asked me what my thoughts were on UFOs and ETs. Before answering, I asked that she tell me what she thought on the subject. She rationalized that she thought that the vastness of the universe and our galaxy made it unlikely...and wondered how anybody could pinpoint the earth with such precision and why would they come to begin with.

    This from a woman (I've known for 18 yrs) that uses critical thinking on a daily basis! I was very impressed and proud of her:)


    Tim: It seems that “Critical” thinking (whatever it is) coupled with ignorance is a very bad combination.

    The astronomers have already mapped an impressive and great number of stars in our galaxy, and already know which of those stars are similar to our sun in mass and type, thus possibly hosting planets with life. Astronomers are also detecting planets at an increasingly fast rate, and will do much better in the future, eventually being able to detect the presence of oxygen in such planets, and thus detecting life on them. Of course, advanced civilizations could do a lot better than human astronomers, and even sharing of maps (of planets with intelligent apes) between civilizations may occur.

    So, clueless critical thinking is worthless. You should be a little more responsible, and shouldn’t even be quoting here opinions of people not involved seriously in the study of these kind of topics. Definitely, YOUR BAD.

    If something, next time give some more balanced view to your nurse and tell her that nobody knows with certainty whether UFOs are real or not, but that many people out there who knows an awful lot more than her, think that some UFOs are extraterrestrial in origin.

    By Blogger Don Maor, at Monday, April 20, 2015  

  • Geez, Don...

    You've missed the whole point of my post.

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Monday, April 20, 2015  

  • Don,

    My response to my friend after she had given me her INSIGHTFUL response was that she had echoed my thoughts on the matter with the proviso that due to said vastness of the universe that it was statistically likely that other civilizations may indeed be flourishing. That includes our mundane galaxy.

    Your problem appears to stem from the average person having the capability to have rational and intuitive thoughts which threatens your world view which is a pity.

    Your bad...

    By Blogger Tim Hebert, at Monday, April 20, 2015  

  • I might add that we have 100 percent proof of life in the universe with no doubts attributed to said proof: here on this planet.

    The rest is a statistical assumption.

    By Blogger Tim Hebert, at Monday, April 20, 2015  

  • Rich wrote:
    "Geez, Don...
    You've missed the whole point of my post."


    Rich, if the point of your post was to show fancy photographs, then you are welcome, and i don't have quarrels.

    But however, you also wrote:

    "I've always maintained that the Earth is inconsequential in the great scheme of the universe and, thus, wouldn't be an attraction to an alien culture or civilization."

    This is a complete NONSEQUITUR. cause, Who in the world told you that alien civilizations are looking for the great scheme of the universe? How did you know that the purpose of all members of an alien civilization is to find the great scheme of the universe? Last time I checked, we humans have different motivations in life, some enjoy doing sports, other enjoy playing with their pets, other like to travel to distant places, other like watching movies or reading books, etc. Explain me why the scientist watches those ninsignificant microorganisms under his microscope? Why the entomologist travel to Africa to watch the behaviour of an irrelevant ant? Why some people like using tatooes on their skin?

    You don't have a point here Rich, you have nothing here except for some nice photographs.

    Regards

    By Blogger Don Maor, at Monday, April 20, 2015  

  • Thanks, Don..

    At least you got some satisfaction out of my post.

    Mine is a conjecture, not an attempt to provide Gospel truths.

    But, in context, Earth is a lonely place, a backwater, and if an alien civilization finds it interesting, I'm not inclined to be enamored of their culture or thought processes.

    RR

    By Blogger RRRGroup, at Monday, April 20, 2015  

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