UFO Conjectures

Sunday, May 02, 2021

Who (or what) is behind the UFO phenomenon? By José Antonio Caravaca

Copyright 2021, José Antonio Caravaca

To begin with, we must make it clear that we are dealing with a real phenomenon, unknown and unexplained by our science. Above all, there are 4 points that indicate the true dimension of this enigma:

1.- The universality of the experiences, and their effect on people of all kinds and cultures.

2.- The existence of incidents narrated by witnesses unaware of the paradigm but which, inexplicably, fit the patterns established by the phenomenon itself.

3.- That the experiences can be observed by several witnesses jointly or independently.

4.- The existence of physical evidence associated with the experiences: footprints, traces, burns, etc.

Evidently, my approaches are far removed from the HET and the alleged alien visitors, and therefore I have established the term "external agent" (AE) to define in a generic way and without limitations the person responsible for this type of manifestations.

Undoubtedly, over the centuries, under various labels, human beings have witnessed various encounters with unknown creatures and beings (daemons, angels, fairies, demons, extraterrestrials) that have something in common: they are tremendously elusive and little given to revealing their true nature and origin, besides being ephemeral. But the strangest thing is that all these encounters seem to occur outside our ordinary perception.

Personally, I am convinced that AE serves as a catalyst for our psyche to access sporadic "contacts" with unknown portions of our reality - perhaps other dimensions - although ultimately nothing observed would respond to an empirical reality as we conceive it.

The AE could also be some kind of energetic "entity", which would need human beliefs, or the very interaction with people, to "exist", but even these manifestations could hide some kind of unknown psychic process linked to Jung's collective unconscious.

It must be taken into account that, probably, from old paradigms that have been updated, the topic of "extraterrestrial visitors" was born, framed in a very specific time and as natural substitutes in our particular altar of the archaic "gods" and the outdated supernatural "entities" that have always accompanied us.

Therefore, I believe that UFOs, above all, are a "psycho- dimensional" phenomenon that in certain circumstances interacts with our physical environment producing a wide spectrum of highly malleable repercussions due to our unconscious participation - because of its evident importance, in the final chapter of this book [Distortion] we will expand this definition of our mysterious "distorting" agent. 



  • Jose, I've been reading your "External Agent" (AE) theory here for years now. And while I have the greatest respect for your intellect and for your willingness to present a plausible explanation of the UFO phenomenon, I still end up with the same problem: A Why replace one unknown phenomenon with still ANOTHER unknown phenomenon? And B. how does that replacement get us any closer to the truth, to the actual nature of the UFO phenomenon?

    With apologies to Rich, the presentation you make is similar to conjecture concerning the origins of the universe and the mystery of life itself with "GOD" put forth (by some folks) as the ultimate cause of everything. But that, as some of accept, just moves the "problem" of creation back one step...back to GOD herself! Unless you tell us convincingly the origins of this AE, we are still all wandering in the dark about UFOs.

    By Blogger Dominick, at Sunday, May 02, 2021  

  • Dominick Evidently the process that gives rise to these types of experiences recorded in hundreds of people remains unknown (and not only in our time). The use of the term external agent has less to do with its possible origin than in trying to determine what type of mechanism is put into play here, which is what interests me, why people report such encounters? and why they experience them in such a personalized way?
    I think it is an interesting phenomenon and obviously we have not yet fully understood, but this does not mean that they are aliens or complex control systems ...

    thanks for your comment

    By Blogger jacarav@ca, at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • Every time I read about Jose's theory the "phychotronic influence" hypothesis comes to mind .. Of course Jacques Vallee has answered partially to this hypothesis by providing long lists of strange encounters during past historic times (Magonia material) .

    Vallee's statements rule out the human factor using the psychotronic technology .. or rather rule out the human factor using ,ALL the time this technology ..

    Something is out there causing what we have recorded so many times, probably there are human agents corrupting the UFO data, but still the story is unveiled.

    I don't undestand Dominic's position relative to the "Distortion Theory" and the substituting of one unknown variable with another. In science we do it all the time .. one hypothesis substitutes another with more experiments to be conducted .. and the show goes on .

    Stavros Hatzopoulos

    By Blogger Stavrosh, at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • Dominick:

    "Why replace one unknown phenomenon with still ANOTHER unknown phenomenon?"

    How could this not be applied with at least as much force to the posit of highly advanced extraterrestrial life (to explain the UFO data) for which we have literally no evidence whatsoever? There is in point of fact vastly more evidence for "paranormal" effects than there is for super-intelligent extraterrestrials: https://psi-encyclopedia.spr.ac.uk/. So I would insist that the prior probability of JAC's hypothesis is substantially higher than that of the ETH.


    By Blogger Martin Black, at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • The answer to your first question Martin is that we CAN apply my "replacement" argument to ETH. I disagree, however, that in that case we have "no evidence whatever" for that explanation. After all, we have SOME evidence (radar returns, instant acceleration, incredible speeds, etc.) that we are observing a manifestation of some advanced technology, far beyond our own. That suggests (but does not prove) an "off this world" origin as the least unlikely hypothesis for UFOs, an hypothesis, by the way, that we may be able validate at some point.

    Now as to probabilities, I assert that there is no rational way to calculate probability in either case (Jose or ETH) and, thus, no rational way to compare probabilities. My argument with Jose was that I did not think it was particularly helpful to posit an "external agent" when, admittedly, we can no NOTHING about such a source, power, entity, being, whatever. Further, such an "explanation" for the UFO phenomenon does not create a testable hypothesis...so how does any of this enhance our understanding of UFOs?

    By Blogger Dominick, at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • Thank you, Mr Caravaca, for your interesting post: it´s the first time I´ve heard of the term "External Agent" in relation to the UFO phenomenon, and I think it´s appropriate. At the same time, I think I´ve to agree with Mr Dominick´s "replacement argument". Or more correctly, my personal view is that both a "psycho-dimensional" and a "nuts n bolts" explanation can partially explain the origin of the UFO phenomenon, but I hold it probable that there are aspects of the "Phenomenon" that we humans never will (fully) comprehend. Which doesn´t mean that we shouldn´t try to understand as much as possible about the Phenomenon: who knows what we can discover about ourselves and reality along the way?

    Yes, the origin of the UFO phenomenon (-na) is most likely more than extraterrestrial beings, just like Jacques Vallée believes and J Allen Hynek believed. But, that doesn´t entail that everything paranormal is intertwined with UFOs/UAP. I´m not saying that Mr Caravaca claims that in his post, but it seems to be popular among ufo-aficionados to perceive paranormal phenomena as inseparable from the UFO phenomenon. My point being, that the term "UFO phenomenon/phenomena" (or "Unidentified Aerial Phenomena") has itself become an obstacle for greater clarity and understanding.

    So perhaps the best thing we can do at the moment is to be very clear with the terms we use, as Mr Caravaca is with his "External Agent", prepare for the (hopefully) rational and fair critic from others, and then polish our terminology and hypothesis?

    Again, thank you!

    By Blogger UFO: A Validated Mystery., at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • I particularly find it hard to believe in extraterrestrials as much as in a control systems or ultraterrestrials. Admitting the existence of an external agent does not imply that we are talking about abstract esoteric concepts or any kind of intelligence or manipulative force. In my opinion there is a lot of evidence that points to the existence of an unknown paradigm, of psychological (mixed internal/external) order with different physical implications, that interacts with the witnesses at very intimate levels to conform certain scenarios, which we have denominated supernatural. I do not pursue the Roswell debris, nor the autopsies of alleged aliens. My interest is focused on finding out why throughout history people have contacts with unknown beings and entities, and I believe that my studies are showing that there is a close link between the observer and the observed much more than had been proven so far. Demonstrating, among other things, that these manifestations have no memory from one encounter to another, and do not seem to have a clear objective, nor prefixed, rather than being carried away by the interaction that takes place with the witnesses as if these phenomena developed in a oneiric/theatrical way.
    And although all the incidents seem to start from the same genesis, not exist a apparent control or willingness to steer the encounters in a particular way. Because it must be taken into account that the development, interpretation and decoding is established at the individual level, under very specific socio-cultural parameters, as if all the content of these encounters suddenly sprouted, in a fortuitous mechanism, feedback between the witnesses and the phenomenon, which develops at the same moment, without any apparent previous intentionality of the paradigm to carry out any sublime objective...

    By Blogger jacarav@ca, at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • Caravaca: If you´re not already familiar with the "Integrated Information Theory of Consciousness" (IIT), you may want to look into it. If I understand correctly what your studies are about, I think you would find IIT interesting and as a plausible theoretical framework for the mechanism as to why people are reporting these special kinds of experiences, and why the experiences are so personalized.
    I hope it´s ok to leave a link to one of my blog post about IIT: there one can find some links to the research done on IIT by Guilio Tononi, the originator of the theory about consciousness:

    Take care!

    By Blogger UFO: A Validated Mystery., at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • -> After all, we have SOME evidence (radar returns, instant acceleration, incredible speeds, etc.)<-

    I agree with Dominick, "Radar returns, etc." Prove, that something REAL, is out there, and can not be denied, but What? Of course, That has always been the question.

    Radar returns on something real, are reliable, or it wouldn't be used in aircraft, ships, ground & what have you. When radar gives a return on UFO; something that is "real" you can rely on the data..The problem is.. "doubt" gets in the way of ones own inteligence, probably because of the unbelievable speed of these things, and the maneuvers they make, but radar shows it, for what it is..REAL!!...........

    By Blogger Daniel, at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • Thanks Janne

    By Blogger jacaravaca, at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • Dominick:

    I'll concede that insofar as radar returns etc. are consistent with the ETH they count as evidence for it. My phrasing was too blunt and extreme. What I should've said is something to this effect: There's no evidence at all that we're dealing with ETs *rather than* [any of the various other non-debunkerish possibilities such as "ultraterrestrials" or the "external agent"]. The radar returns and so on are consistent with the possibility of highly advanced ET visitation. But obviously going from all of that to ETs requires some inferential leaps. We have no idea if we're actually observing "technologies" at all for example.

    I'd argue that we often find ourselves in situations where he have only an intuitive sense of the probabilities of the outcomes or possibilities that interest us. In other words where we cannot come up with any reliable quantitative estimates of probability. I don't think this prevents us from comparing probabilities though. It just means we can only do so with far less than the desired amount of precision.

    I'm not sure that JAC's hypothesis is any less testable than the ETH. How do we test the latter? There has been no progress toward confirming it for decades. JAC's view seems to entail that UFO and "close encounter" experiences are continuous with a number of other paranormal experiences such as mystical states. If we can crack the latter we may end up with a lot of insight into the former. As it happens I think some of the most interesting and revealing work on UFO and related phenomena has been done by exploring their parallels with "paranormal" anomalies that at first glance one would assume were completely irrelevant.


    By Blogger Martin Black, at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • Given that historical death and destruction has often followed the advance of alleged "superior" beings with "advanced" technology, I am almost hoping that you psychic guys are right, i.e., that we are not dealing with ET at all but some paranormal anomaly. Yet there are some statistical peculiarities in UFO reporting that appear to favor ET over psychic. One is the that some of the best (and most troubling) UFO encounters occur over nuclear sites and weapon storage areas (and more recently around our Naval warships). Now this sounds like an intelligence gathering mission rather than some spirit manifestation. Yes?

    By Blogger Dominick, at Monday, May 03, 2021  

  • Glad if my reference to IIT can be useful for your studies.

    By Blogger UFO: A Validated Mystery., at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Yes, it does. Also remember that the U.S. military probably has the most sophisticated intelligence gathering technology in the world, and that we most likely only heard of a fraction of all the evidence gathered of UFOs by, for instance, the U.S. Navy.
    We have a former Director of National Intelligence talking about satelllite imagery and active US Senators saying that UFOs (or UAP) are real but that "they're not ours".
    Of course, none of the above mentioned shows or proves that UFOs flying over nuclear weapon bases and in restricted air space are extraterrestial in origin, but I do think it's indicative of a technology rather than some psychic phenomena. A long way of saying I agree with your reasoning, Dominick.


    By Blogger UFO: A Validated Mystery., at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Dominick
    Why do you consider a UFO sighting over a nuclear base to be more significant than a close face-to-face encounter with the phenomenon? Why should a UFO hovering over a missile silo be more alarming than a UFO landing in the backyard of a house and from which several laughing ufonauts descend?? Our way of searching for answers to the UFO enigma always chooses the shortest intellectual shortcut that is closest to our own way of thinking.
    In fact, most of the conclusions presented by orthodox ufologists after the study of UFO cases have been developed under an excessive pragmatism, but it is obvious that the ufological paradigm escapes our classical behavioral patterns. Nor does it seem logical that extraterrestrials are 70 years watching our nuclear arsenal. Our approach to the UFO subject since 1947 seems to have gone nowhere, and anyway, I have always considered that the landing of a genuine alien spacecraft in the White House or Yankee Stadium could not even come close to explaining the enormous, motley and overwhelming UFO literature collected worldwide.My studies do not intend to validate or invalidate any hypothesis about the origin of the UFO phenomenon from the outset, but obviously if we were able to understand what mechanisms are put into operation in this type of experiences, it would help us a lot to deepen our understanding of the subject.And for the moment it is abundantly clear that the human factor intervenes in the manifestation of the UFO phenomenon in a much broader and more forceful way than previously assumed. But not only to configure the external aspect of the phenomenon but even to direct its behavior before the witnesses. Therefore, from my point of view, any idea that we put forward about the phenomenon, both about its aesthetics (appearance) and narrative (behavior) must take into account that it is being influenced by the participation of the witnesses.

    By Blogger jacarav@ca, at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Mr. Caravaca:

    You talk of interactions between the phenomenon and witnesses, each influencing the other. Do you think it would still exist without a witness?

    By Blogger Ron, at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Some comments on the discussion between Martin and Dominic:

    The fact that we have physical evidence on UFOs (radar blips, physical traces on the ground, EM effectc etc) is telling us that these objects have sometimes a 3D reality .. when they dont blip out of existence.

    Furthermore the level of advanced technology does not insinuate automatically an "extraterrestrial" origin. The ETH was created in a period (1950s) where our concept of the Universe was rather limited and distorted. Nowdays we have new options to consider, like different 3D dimensions, parallel universes etc. Of course I am the first to admit that these exotic options are very hard to comprehend in the context of our perceived everyday reality. Nevertheless they should be considered.


    I consider Jose's hypothesis, as an important contribution to the UFO phenomenon and I believe that the next step would be the identify the true CE3 cases from those which have been fabricated by some human "interaction".

    In a period where UFOs have become UAPs .. this might be rather challenging.

    Stavros Hatzopoulos

    By Blogger Stavrosh, at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Very interesting!

    I have a question for José. What are the differences between your theory and Jacques Vallée's ideas about the nature of these fascinating aspects of the hidden reality ?



    By Blogger Hessdalenlights, at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Ron, I believe that without the participation of witnesses the UFO phenomenon would not exist, at least as we know it in its closest format. The observer acts, unintentionally, as a filter and decoder to interpret these manifestations, giving them a very specific scenography, which, although it contains common sociocultural traits, is ultimately based on material that is exclusive to the witnesses. Therefore, in the absence of the observers, we cannot find certain results.

    By Blogger jacarav@ca, at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Julien as I said before, my studies are based on trying to correctly interpret close encounters and not on presenting a hypothesis about the origin of UFOs. If we do not know their modus operandi, obviously we can put forward ideas that do not conform to reality, therefore, before talking about aliens, control systems or time travelers, we should try to decode why the UFO scenography is produced in such a determined and personalized way, with hardly any repetition of elements, beyond general concepts (extraterrestrial pilots and spacecraft). A clear example is the interpretation that Vallée gives to the absurdity factor contained in the close encounters with UFOs, considering that this aspect must obey to a "trick" that we cannot value in its fair measure (in fact he has offered several explanations for this absurdity factor). However, I believe that the explanation for this recurrent aspect is much simpler if we integrate it within the global context offered in the close encounters, since it is intuited that what is observed by the witnesses is very similar (although we are facing something else) to a dreamlike process where real things are mixed with more abstract, ridiculous, terrifying and unbelievable aspects. I therefore believe that the hidden pretensions of the phenomenon around the absurd element have been overestimated (I include Keel) .
    Although I share some of Vallée's proposals, I do not believe that we are facing a control system that guides humanity to nowhere, in fact, in 2021 it does not seem that society is better off than in the seventies. UFOs are not a uniform or constant phenomenon. They are episodes that are restarted in each encounter, but having as a reference pattern the witnesses and not the phenomenon itself. I hope you have understood.

    By Blogger jacarav@ca, at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Jose, when I see an airplane in the sky, its reality does NOT depend upon my "participation." And a lack of witnesses to that airplane does not "disappear" the phenomenon. A tree falling in the forest is a tree falling in the forest regardless of witness participation. Same with (some) UFOs although their advanced technology may appear magical...

    By Blogger Dominick, at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Dominick If you read my statements you will see that it refers to close encounters, however, your example of the airplane does not fit even for distant sightings, since in one case it is an airplane, in another a bus and in the next a bicycle.

    By Blogger jacaravaca, at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • José Antonio Caravaca said:

    ". . . I believe that without the participation of witnesses the UFO phenomenon would not exist, at least as we know it in its closest format."

    Then the external agent is not a tulpa? It sounds as if you're leaving some wiggle room for it to have some form of existence of its own.

    By Blogger Ron, at Tuesday, May 04, 2021  

  • Ron...
    The UFO experiences are not the product of a human mental (hallucination, mental disorders, mirages...) process, not even of an extraordinary event such as is supposed to give rise to the "tulpas". Close encounters with UFOs are the result of the interaction of witnesses with something that provokes a supernatural staging that has accompanied human beings for centuries. An exogenous element but intimately linked to the witnesses that shapes an apparent reality loaded with sociocultural and personal stereotypes. The UFO experiences are, in short, singular, spontaneous and unpremeditated events that involves us in a reality hidden from our ordinary senses, that we have not yet been able to interpret correctly precisely because of our immersion in this "psychic" mechanism, without understanding exactly what we are facing....

    By Blogger jacarav@ca, at Wednesday, May 05, 2021  

  • Mr. Caravaca, I've been dragging my feet accepting "supernatural" explanations, but am starting to accept the possibility as a way out of the usual UFO morass. Obviously, I'm not quite there yet, so forgive me while I try to wrap my mind around this concept, and thank you for indulging me.

    By Blogger Ron, at Wednesday, May 05, 2021  

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